She Won, Part III: The Devil Is In The Data

88 counties flipped red. None flipped blue. Trump swept every swing state—each just above the mandatory recount thresholds. What are the odds? About one in never.

Darkness Our Old Friend

Watching the results roll in on election night, we can probably all agree—our collective gut was telling us something was just… off. Kornacki wasn’t nacki-ing, the blue wave never appeared, and a familiar dread—reminiscent of 2016—began to creep in. But this time was different. This time, we knew.

Between 2020 and 2021, Trump’s allies illegally breached voting equipment in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Colorado, and Arizona. And thanks to a Federalist Society-led appeals court in Georgia, “Teflon Don” got away with breaking the law—again.

At 9:32 p.m. on November 5, Elon Musk preemptively declared victory with a cryptic tweet: “Game, set, match.” Thirty minutes later, Ted Cruz’s smug face squatted on the nation’s screens like he was claiming a throne. Many went to bed discouraged that night. But some of us? We went to bed determined.

Because if you’ve never been to Texas, let’s get one thing straight: everyone hates Ted Cruz.

So, we got to work.

When The Math Ain’t Mathing

We struggled to understand how a 34-count convicted felon—who couldn’t fill a stadium and doesn’t know that asylum is a homonym—somehow outperformed Reagan, flipping 88 counties red while not a single one flipped blue. It felt improbable. So, we did what anyone would do in the face of statistical absurdity: we started digging and ran the numbers.

And before any data purists get their knickers in a twist:
No, it’s not a coin flip.
No, we can’t apply strict binomial math.
We get it.

In fact, based on 2020 data, the actual probability is even worse.

But to be generous—and to keep the math conservative—let’s assume each of the 88 counties had a simple 50/50 chance of flipping red or blue. And yet, somehow, all of them flipped red. Not a single one went blue.

Math:

\(P = (0.5)^{88} ≈ 3.1 × 10^{-27}\)

That’s about a 1 in 1 octillion chance of occurring naturally. This is why statisticians have been running around in hair-on-fire mode for the last six months.

But wait—it gets worse.

Another Crack In The Liberty Bell

The data above reflects what’s commonly referred to as the “drop-off”—the difference between the number of votes cast for the presidential race and those cast for the next down-ballot race within the same party.

In mail-in voting, Harris and Trump show similar drop-off rates (1.48% vs. 1.96%), which aligns with expected voter behavior. But on Election Day, the numbers diverge sharply: Trump’s drop-off rate skyrockets to 4.51%, while Harris’ plummets to 0.87%.

That kind of disparity is impossible to ignore. According to this data—on Election Day only—voters selected Democrats down-ballot, then flipped to Trump at the top of the ticket.

This pattern isn’t just unusual—it defies logic and human voting behavior. It’s the kind of anomaly that should sound every alarm.

But don’t take the ETA’s word for it—the foremost expert in election forensics, Dr. Walter Mebane, backed it up. His eforensics model estimated that 225,440 votes in the Pennsylvania presidential race were possibly fraudulent. Of those, 111,088 were identified with high confidence as intentional, malevolent manipulations.

And that’s just the data. It doesn’t even include the tens of thousands of voters still reporting their ballots as unaccounted for.

The Swing State Hustle

Step 1: It’s A Sweep

Under our previously generous 50/50 assumptions, what are the odds of a candidate winning all seven swing states?

More math:

\(P = (0.5)^7 = \frac{1}{128}\)

So even with idealized conditions, this kind of a sweep is already rare.

Let’s take it a step further:
What are the odds that a candidate wins all seven swing states and comes in just above the recount threshold in every single one?

Step 2: Seven Swing States Above Recount Threshold

Based on historical trends, competitive elections have about a 3% chance of landing within the margin required for a recount. The odds of that happening in all seven states?

More math:

\(P = (0.97)^7 ≈ 0.81\)

This alone is not suspicious, but when layered with the probability of sweeping all seven swing states, the scenario becomes even more rare.

Even more math:

\((1/128) \:×\: 0.81 = \frac{1}{159} \)

And again—for the statisticians already heading to the comments—we know this isn’t how electoral modeling works in real life.

This is a simplified, extremely generous baseline meant to illustrate how implausible the official outcome is, even under favorable assumptions.

And as you’ve probably guessed by now… It gets worse.

Bibbidi–Bobbidi–Boo, Mr. Trump

How could it possibly get worse? Because when you combine the probability of all three—the 88 counties flipping red (with none flipping blue) and the sweep of all seven swing states, each one landing just above the threshold for an automatic recount—you’re no longer talking about a statistical outlier.

You’re talking about a Fairy Godmother.
Or, more likely, a Space Godfather.

Step 3: Combined Probability of All Three
Promise, this is the final math:

\(P = (0.5)^{88} \: × \: (0.05)^7 ≈ \:2.04 \:×\: 10^{-29}\)

This equation puts the odds at roughly 1 in 50 octillion. Insert laugh track here.

Yes, you read that right. That’s a 1 in 5×10²⁸ chance—a 1 followed by 28 zeroes:

1 in 50,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

The chances of a candidate flipping all 88 counties red and winning all 7 swing states just above the recount thresholds? So minuscule, it rounds down to zero—at least in any world governed by math and not “magic.”

2026: King Caps Lock & His Crystal Ball

Donald Trump spent most of 2024 telling his dwindling crowds that he didn’t “need” their votes:
“I’m being told I already have all the votes I need,” he bragged.
“My beautiful Christians… just vote this one time… it’ll be fixed so good… you’ll never have to vote again.”
Then came his praise for Elon Musk’s expertise with those “vote-counting computers.”

Now, Trump is claiming he’ll sweep the 2026 midterms.
“Blue states will totally disappear from the map,” he’s promising a “big, big surprise.” It’s probably fair to say that for must of us, we already experienced this so-called “surprise.” And in our collective gut—we know it.

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What You Can Do

The Rockland County, NY case is just the tip of an iceberg that stretches across the swing states and Texas.
We have constitutional avenues to remove this entire illegitimate administration—but the American people have to know the truth about what happened on November 5 to compel the “right people” to act.

Key Action: Pennsylvania

The Secretary of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania has the statutory authority to take action against election fraud or manipulation.
Sign the petition sponsored by the Election Truth Alliance, demanding a paper ballot audit in PA.

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How To Take Action

• Normalize the truth:

  Share the data. Talk about the first two articles. Talk about all of it. Because as we’ve learned, “They’re not like us…”

• Contact senators and state attorneys general:
  Voice your concerns about the astronomically improbable results of the 2024 election.

• Start a correspondence campaign:
  Call, email, and post on social media to urge PA officials to proceed with a paper ballot audit.

We don’t need permission to enforce the Constitution. We just need the courage to act on it.

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